Renewable Energy In Thailand
Renewable Energy In Thailand – We expect Thailand to maintain strong growth in its renewable energy sector, and remain the best performing source of renewable energy in Southeast Asia over the next decade.
Our view is supported by a very supportive regulatory environment for renewable energy, which the government considers necessary to diversify the energy mix away from over-reliance on natural gas power, especially as the country will continue to rely on liquid natural gas. gas (LNG) to become a net importer. ) in the coming years.
Renewable Energy In Thailand
Supporting policies include attractive entry fees, tax incentives, net metering schemes, voluntary programs and improved access to finance. The latest Energy Development Plan (PDP 2018-37) aims to get 35% of the country’s energy from non-fossil fuel sources by 2037.
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Under the new PDP, the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) is expected to license at least 10 GW of solar capacity over the next two decades.
Continued efforts to decentralize and digitize the grid will promote the integration and use of sustainable renewable resources, supporting the growth of the sector. We estimate that non-hydro renewable energy capacity will double in the coming decades to reach 17.7 GW by 2030, accounting for 24.7% of the total energy mix.
This expansion will be largely driven by the solar energy and biomass sub-sectors, with a strong advantage for the latter. We have adjusted our biomass capacity and production forecasts slightly upward this quarter, as the sector has grown stronger than our original expectations in 2019 and 2020.
We are also very optimistic about the growth prospects of the sub-sector. The National Energy Policy Council (NEPC) simplified its “Energy for All” program to focus on biomass and waste, excluding solar and wind farms.
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The scheme aims to establish community-owned energy production projects, which largely utilize waste energy sources, particularly in remote areas. This will encourage communities to sell crop waste that is used for biomass and biogas production to generate additional income.
NEPC has set 2021 as the pilot year for the scheme, and will start the bidding process for 150 MW in the coming months. At the same time, the Ministry of Energy approved a budget of 6.5 billion baht from the Energy Savings Fund for 2021, most of which will be allocated to support renewable projects for agricultural purposes.
Absolute Clean Energy Plc also claims to have developed a waste-to-energy technology that can use different types of agricultural waste as biomass feedstock, challenging unstable supply sources and requiring different management methods for each specific energy type. overcome Waste If such a system is implemented on a large scale, we believe it will encourage strong growth in the biomass and waste market.
Growth will also be driven by significant investor and business interest in the sector. In addition to investor interest in developing renewable energy projects in Thailand, there is also a growing number of corporate energy procurement contracts, mainly in the renewable energy sector. These include, among other things, power purchase agreements, green power purchases and green tariffs.
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In line with the growing awareness of the environment, many business units have established their own environmental and sustainability goals. Many large companies in Thailand have already announced their goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and have largely turned to renewable energy sources as part of improving their social responsibility image.
Despite this, a growing number of companies are looking to install their own distributed self-generating resources, such as rooftop solar products or waste incineration to save energy and costs.
There has already been a significant increase in the number of companies in various sectors installing solar panels on the roofs of their industrial or commercial buildings, under an independent energy supply model, which allows them to supply excess energy back to the grid. .
A recent example is Auto Alliance Thailand, a local Rayong-based Ford and Mazda body shop. The company has signed an agreement with WHA Utilities and Power Plc to install a 5MW rooftop solar project, which is expected to be completed by August this year.
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In particular, companies that deal with waste as waste products are looking to develop waste-to-energy facilities because they can be easily used as raw materials for both cost savings and Provide a sustainable business model.
For example, we have seen investments in recent years from TPI Polene, Charoen Pokphand Foods and Kaset Thai International Sugar Corporation Plc, among many others, to support their facilities to develop biomass and waste-to-energy facilities. to give
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Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha also pledged in Glasgow that the country will achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2065. These commitments are a step up from what we mentioned earlier, which calls for carbon neutrality by 2065 to 2070. Energy Plan 2022.
The Prime Minister also raised the Bio-Circular Green (BCG) economy model as a way to ensure more sustainable economic development. The BCG model includes a focus on using biomass resources for renewable energy.
In addition to what was announced at COP26, Thailand has also made plans to develop renewable energy in the power sector, through the Alternative Energy Development Plan 2018-37 (AEDP) for a total capacity of 18.7 GW of non- With a hydro renewable target. )). Supporting the AEDP is the Energy Development Plan 2018-37 (PDP) which aims to achieve a 37% energy mix from non-fossil fuel sources by 2037.
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As a result of the new commitment to carbon neutrality and the supportive renewable energy policy landscape to support this commitment, we expect Thailand to experience strong growth in non-hydro renewable energy. We estimate that non-hydro renewable energy capacity will increase from 9.7 GW by the end of 2021 to 17.2 GW by the end of 2030, with an average annual growth of 6.8%.
We expect solar and biomass energy to be the main drivers of renewable energy growth, boosting climate plans and ensuring that Thailand remains Asia’s best performer – the Southeast in renewable energy development.
In the short term, we expect that the focus for non-hydro renewable energy development in Thailand will be on biomass and solar energy. This view is supported by projects in the pipeline and government plans.
On October 31 last year, commercial operations began at the world’s largest hydro-floating solar hybrid installation at Surindoorn Dam, adding 45 MW of capacity to the country’s power grid. The Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (AGAT) also announced plans to proceed with 15 other similar projects, such as a 24 MW solar installation at Ubolertana Dam. Agat expects these projects to contribute to the energy market with a total capacity of 2.7 GW.
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In addition to solar energy, biomass will also be an important player. We expect that biomass power plants, which generally produce electricity from biogas, biomass and waste, will be built in local communities outside the big cities, where most – agricultural activity. This will allow power plant operators to take advantage of proximity to biomass fuel sources.
In addition, the state’s Energy for All plan will support the development of municipal biomass power plants. As a result, we think solar and biomass will drive the growth of renewable energy.
However, the long-term dependence of power plants using fossil fuels will present challenges in reducing carbon emissions. Thailand’s energy sector is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, which we estimate make up 78.7% of the current energy mix.
Among fossil fuels, natural gas dominates the market, with 2021 production of 115 terawatt-hours, more than three times the share of non-hydropower at 35TWh. We expect this disparity between the two sub-sectors to remain until 2030, as the country still has gas-fired power plants in the project pipeline.
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In particular, two large gas-fired power plants from Gulf Energy Development, one in Chon Buri and the other in Riyang, will have a combined capacity of 5.3 GW. We expect the Chun Buri facility to come online this year and the Ryong facility in 2025.
Furthermore, we point out that at COP26, Thailand did not join the coalition to stop coal phase-out and coal power development. As a result, our forecast shows that conventional thermal generation will remain the largest contributor to Thailand’s energy mix until 2030, with little decline.
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