Renewable Energy Impact Factor – Technological innovation, affordability and growing consumer demand are making renewable energies, especially wind and solar energy, the preferred energy sources. Let’s look at seven trends driving this change.
Recently recognized as a “primary” energy source, renewable energy is fast becoming the preferred source. Globally, a combination of demand and demand trends in many developed and developing countries are helping solar and wind energy to compete and outperform conventional sources.
Renewable Energy Impact Factor
The first incentive is that renewables reach cost and performance parity on the grid and at the outlet. Second, solar and wind grids help balance costs in a cost-effective way. Third, new technologies are increasing the competitive advantage of wind and solar.
The Limits To Renewable Energy
The needs of energy users are mainly grouped around three objectives, with the first three trends making it possible to better meet renewable energies. By giving different levels of importance to each goal, consumers seek the most reliable, affordable and environmentally friendly energy sources.
Among these consumers are major cities that integrate renewables into their smart city plans, community energy projects that democratize access to on-grid and off-grid renewable energy, emerging markets that implement renewables as they develop and companies that broaden their horizons. Solar and wind supply.
These trends continue to reinforce each other in two philanthropic circles that support each other. The diffusion of new technologies will reduce additional costs and improve integration. This will enable more and more energy consumers to find their preferred energy source and accelerate national energy transitions around the world.
Thanks to three drivers, long-standing barriers to a more renewable deployment have been removed: a rapid approach to network parity, reliable and cost-effective network integration, and technological innovation. Beyond active markets, once dismissed as too expensive, solar and wind are now outperforming conventional sources in terms of cost. The idea that renewables have many integration problems that need to be solved has been overturned: the integration of solar and wind is starting to solve grid problems. Finally, renewables do not wait for supporting technologies to mature, but rather exploit advanced technologies over conventional sources.
Renewable Energy Is Suddenly Startlingly Cheap
The speed of solar and wind energy rollouts and steeply falling cost curves surprised even the industry’s most optimistic operators and observers. Despite continuing perceptions before and against, wind and solar energy, despite the absence of subsidies, have become competitive with conventional generation technologies in major global markets.
Wind and solar grids have achieved cost parity and are approaching parity in performance with conventional sources. Indeed, the unsubsidized leveled cost of energy (LCOE) for industrial-scale onshore wind and solar photovoltaic production has also declined with or below other generation technologies in most of the world.
While assets such as combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) have greater flexibility to follow the load line, the rising cost of battery storage and other innovations are helping to reduce the intermittency problem in wind and solar, giving them greater reliability to compete with traditional systems. . Sources. In terms of cost, offshore wind has become the cheapest energy source in the world, with an unsubsidized LCOE range of US $ 30-60 per megawatt hour (MWh), well below the cheapest fossil fuel range, natural gas. ($ 42-78 per MWh).
In the year At the end of 2017, offshore wind capacity was With a capacity of 216 gigawatts (GW), a total of 121 countries distributed 495 GW of offshore wind power, led by China, the United States, Germany and India. Spain, France, Brazil, the UK and Canada and offshore wind hit a price in these nine countries.
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In the United States, the lowest costs are found in high wind regions such as the Great Plains and Texas, while the highest are found in the Northeast.
Large-scale photovoltaic solar is on the heels of the wind: it is the second cheapest source of energy. The highest LCOE range for solar ($ 43 to $ 53 / MWh) is lower than any other generation source.
A record 93.7 GW – more than the total capacity in 2011 (69 GW) – was added globally in 2017 in 187 countries, including China, Japan, Germany, the United States, Italy, India and China, Japan, Germany, United States, Italy And the total capacity led by India reached 386 GW. United Kingdom.
Mainly due to the high investment costs, the solar market has achieved price parity in all of these markets with the exception of Japan, which is the most expensive in the world. As Japan moves into tenders, solar price parity is expected between 2025 and 2030. In the United States, the lowest costs are found in the Southwestern states and California.
Estimation Of Global Final Stage Energy Return On Investment For Fossil Fuels With Comparison To Renewable Energy Sources
Globally, Australia has the lowest cost of solar PV and Africa is the highest due to investment costs.
Beyond the major countries, wind and solar price parity is in sight around the world, as the price difference between these generation sources and others is increasing. With the exception of gas-fired combined-cycle plants, for all non-stop conventional and renewable sources that have remained stable (biomass and coal) or increased (geothermal, hydroelectric and nuclear) over the past eight years, the LCOEs of offshore wind and solar Industrial-scale PV are 67% and 86% respectively, but declined, respectively, with lower replacement costs and increased efficiency, two trends that are expected to continue. .
According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, the cost of offshore wind and solar PV generation fell by 18% in the first half of 2018.
In Europe, Japan and China, competitive supply is the main reason to further reduce costs by promoting distribution at subsidized prices.
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In developed countries, upgrading or “revitalizing” wind turbines increases capacity factors and reduces average costs. In addition, international developers and international organizations can collaborate to facilitate project development, and the costs of developing countries can decrease. Such a partnership would help close the resource gap as Japan, Germany and the UK have the poorest solar resources but are world leaders in solar energy, while Africa and the UK have the largest solar and wind resources in the world, respectively. South America. These remain mostly unused.
As wind and solar capacity increases, many conventional sources start operating at lower capacity, resulting in an increase in the LCOE of existing conventional and new construction projects. Not only will the cost of new solar and wind farms be lower than the cost of new conventional power plants, it may also be lower than the cost of running existing plants around the world. This follows Enel’s previous bid last year to build a combination of wind, solar and geothermal power plants in Chile that would sell electricity for coal and natural gas at a cost below the cost of fuel.
Onshore wind and concentrated solar power (CSP) are reaching parity, with LCOE ranges joining the upper end of the coal range but remaining above the gas-coupled cycle range. A record 4.9 GW of offshore wind was deployed in 15 countries in 2017, bringing total capacity to 19.3 GW, mainly in the UK, Germany, China and Denmark.
Offshore wind has reached similar levels in Germany and Denmark and is expected to do so in 2025 and 2030 in the UK and in 2024 in China.
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The United States has only one offshore wind farm, but their project portfolio is growing, mainly along the highly competitive North Atlantic coast. As new projects go into operation, the US offshore wind LCOE will drop to European and Chinese levels and is expected to reach parity over the next decade. In terms of power plants using CSP technology, Spain (2.3 GW) and the United States (1.8 GW) lead the market with 4.9 GW and 15 countries, but have not increased capacity since 2013 and 2015. Other CSP markets with higher to lower potential are South Africa, India, Morocco, United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Egypt, China, Australia, Israel, Italy, Thailand, Germany and Turkey.
CSP has yet to reach its peak, but a number of recent tender results indicate it will become competitive with fossil fuels by 2020.
Industrial-scale solar and wind combined with storage are increasingly competitive, providing parity of grid performance in addition to parity in cost. As storage increases, wind and solar become more volatile, negating the long-term benefits of conventional energy sources. Although the cost of renewable energy and storage is high, the capacity and services of the auxiliary grid can provide more value. Regulatory and market structures determine whether value-added monetization is possible. But even if the services cannot be sold, this combination is more valuable because operators can better meet their needs and convert grid-supplied electricity into cheaper operating hours. In the year Since 2010, the costs of lithium-ion batteries have fallen by almost 80% and with the increase in penetration of solar energy, renewable energies associated with storage are reaching price parity.
All major solar markets have large-scale projects that include storage. In the US, the storage market leader, Sunplus Storage is so competitive in some markets that developer Lightsource has announced that all of its Western offerings will include storage.
Renewable Energy Market Update
Given the investment tax credit, the US will see more solar and storage projects in Arizona next year, followed by Nevada and Colorado.
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